Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. Results: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in older adults aged 60-89 years from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Sexually active older adults are often more susceptible to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) due to various health conditions (especially a weakened immune system) and low use of condoms. We aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burdens and trends of HIV and other STIs in older adults from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 on the incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of HIV and other STIs (syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and genital herpes) for older adults aged 60-89 years in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes in the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of HIV and other STIs, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between age-standardised rates and SDI. FINDINGS: In 2019, among older adults globally, there were an estimated 77 327 (95% uncertainty interval 59 443 to 97 648) new cases of HIV (age-standardised incidence rate 7·6 [5·9 to 9·6] per 100 000 population) and 26 414 267 (19 777 666 to 34 860 678) new cases of other STIs (2607·1 [1952·1 to 3440·8] per 100 000). The age-standardised incidence rate decreased by an average of 2·02% per year (95% CI -2·38 to -1·66) for HIV and remained stable for other STIs (-0·02% [-0·06 to 0·01]) from 1990 to 2019. The number of DALYs globally in 2019 was 1 905 099 (95% UI 1 670 056 to 2 242 807) for HIV and 132 033 (95% UI 83 512 to 225 630) for the other STIs. The age-standardised DALY rate remained stable from 1990 to 2019, with an average change of 0·97% (95% CI -0·54 to 2·50) per year globally for HIV but decreased by an annual average of 1·55% (95% CI -1·66 to -1·43) for other STIs. Despite the global decrease in the age-standardised incidence rate of HIV in older people from 1990 to 2019, many regions showed increases, with the largest increases seen in eastern Europe (average annual change 17·84% [14·16 to 21·63], central Asia (14·26% [11·35 to 17·25]), and high-income Asia Pacific (7·52% [6·54 to 8·51]). Regionally, the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of HIV and other STIs decreased with increases in the SDI. INTERPRETATION: Although the incidence and DALY rates of HIV and STIs either declined or remained stable from 1990 to 2019, there were regional and demographic disparities. Health-care providers should be aware of the effects of ageing societies and other societal factors on the risk of HIV and other STIs in older adults, and develop age-appropriate interventions. The disparities in the allocation of health-care resources for older adults among regions of different SDIs should be addressed. FUNDING: Natural Science Foundation of China, Fujian Province's Third Batch of Flexible Introduction of High-Level Medical Talent Teams, Science and Technology Innovation Team (Tianshan Innovation Team) Project of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, Cure Alzheimer's Fund, Helse Sør-Øst, the Research Council of Norway, Molecule/VitaDAO, NordForsk Foundation, Akershus University Hospital, the Civitan Norges Forskningsfond for Alzheimers Sykdom, the Czech Republic-Norway KAPPA programme, and the Rosa Sløyfe/Norwegian Cancer Society & Norwegian Breast Cancer Society.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination strategies among men who have sex with men in China: a modeling study.

Introduction: The health and economic benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination targeted at men who have sex with men (MSM) in developing settings have been rarely assessed. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination strategies among MSM in China. Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate HPV transmission dynamics among a total of 30.73 million MSM in China. The corresponding natural history included 6 states: susceptible, infected with low-risk subtypes, high-risk subtypes, anogenital warts and anal cancer, and deaths from anal cancer. MSM were divided into three age groups with cut-off points of 27 and 45 years. Alternative vaccination strategies were built by allocating bivalent, quadrivalent, nine-valent, or no vaccine to each of the groups. We generated the prevented infections and deaths by vaccination compared with baseline (no vaccination) and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to determine the optimal strategy. Results: The model showed that in 10 years, at baseline, the existing cases of anogenital warts would reach 5,464,225 (IQR, 4,685,708-6,174,175); that of anal cancer would reach 1,922.95 (1,716.56-2,119.93), resulting in 940.55 (732.27-1,141.87) deaths. Under 50% vaccination coverage among one age group, the prevented cases of anogenital warts were maximized with quadrivalent vaccines allocated to MSM aged 27-45 years; that of anal cancer were maximized when offering nine-valent vaccines to the same group. Under 50% vaccination coverage among all groups, the lowest ICER (34,098.09 USD/QALY, 31,146.54-37,062.88) was reached when only quadrivalent vaccines were provided. Based on this strategy, when the annual vaccination rate increased by 30%, the ICER (33,521.75 USD/QALY, 31,040.73-36,013.92) would fall below three times China's per capita GDP. When the vaccine price decreased by 60%, the ICER was reduced to 7,344.44 USD/QALY (4,392.89-10,309.23), indicating good cost-effectiveness taking China's per capita GDP as a threshold. Conclusions: HPV vaccination can effectively reduce the prevalence and mortality of related diseases among MSM in China, especially quadrivalent vaccines for anogenital warts and nine-valent vaccines for anal cancer. MSM aged 27-45 years were the optimal group for vaccination. Annual vaccination and appropriate adjustment of vaccine price are necessary to further improve the cost-effectiveness.